Track Two Diplomacy in Action!!! with William J. Perry, Ph.D.
Saturday, August 27, 2011, Stanford University Alumni Center
Dr. Perry began his remarks with these words by Robert Frost:
“…Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference."
He indicates that he has taken the less traveled road for most of his life—including working as a high-tech wizard in Silicon Valley (ESL) and working as an intelligence analyst during the Cuban Missile Crisis. His government positions have included serving as the nineteenth United States secretary of defense (February 1994 to January 1997), deputy secretary of defense (1993–94), and undersecretary of defense for research and engineering (1977–81).
Dr. Perry defines two tracks of diplomacy:
He is an active Track Two diplomat, working in a “gang of four” with former U.S. Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger, Ph.D., former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, and former U.S. Secretary of State George P. Schultz, Ph.D. The gang of four met for the first time in 2006, to co-author an editorial.
Track Two with North Korea
Dr. Perry went to to South Korea in 2008 to attend the inauguration of the South Korean president. The next day he was driven across the demilitarized zone (DMZ) to North Korea to attend the performance of the New York Philharmonic in Pyongyang. The orchestra’s welcome in North Korea was broadcast on live television and included a standing ovation by citizens and the playing of the “Star-Spangled Banner.” (Dr. Perry notes that music is a universal language.) This followed his Track One dealing with North Korea in 1994, when the country was starting to reprocess plutonium. We came close to a second Korean War at that time, when North Korea promised to turn Seoul into a sea of flames and prepared to send troops to the south. Then North Korea backed down and promised to not make plutonium. Following an agreed upon framework, North Korea froze the building of and then eventually dismantled its nuclear plants. This drama unfolded between 1994 and 2002.
However, in August 1998, North Korea test-fired a long-range missile, leading to Dr. Perry being asked by President Clinton to engage in Track One and a Half diplomacy with North Korea. In May 1999, Dr. Perry led a delegation to North Korea. When he took medicine to a children’s hospital, the children said, “Is he here to kill us?” Such comments demonstrate the effect of a lifetime of propaganda. A first-ever summit with South Korea and Japan followed, and North and South Korea marched together in the next Olympics Games. Then, with the election of a new president in the U.S., diplomacy and talks between North Korea and the U.S. were terminated. Inspectors were ejected from nuclear plants, and North Korea now has an arsenal of seven or eight nuclear arms.
Dr. Perry states that disarmament talks have stalled subsequent to the North Korean nuclear tests. However, two Stanford professors are now trying to go back to North Korea to reopen talks on nuclear disarmament.
Track Two with China
Dr. Perry indicates that America’s relationship with China in the next few years is critically important. President Nixon recognized China in 1971, but his acts of diplomacy were impeded by the cultural revolution. President Carter recognized China just as the revolution ended, and this was the beginning of a cooperative program with China. In 1980, as part of that new cooperation, Dr. Perry led the first military delegation to China. When Ronald Reagan became president, Dr. Perry returned to Stanford and continued Track Two diplomacy with China.
Between 1979 and 1989, our relationship with China was never better. Then the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 in Beijing brought an abrupt decline in our relationship with China. The relationship has never returned to the 1979-89 level.
President Clinton restarted the relationship with China by sending Dr. Perry there in 1994; it was a positive trip with a modest return. The road to friendship proved to be rocky. China conducted a missile test that landed quite close to Taiwan. Washington Post headlines at the time included “China Plans Live-Ammunition Tests,” and “Verbal war heats up over Taiwan.” But by 1996, we had some agreements, though modest, in place.
Since 1997, Dr. Perry has met annually with Chinese officials. He believes the meetings are fruitful, including an agreement between China and Taiwan to begin direct air travel.
Track Two with Iran
Iran has nuclear weapons. Why do we care?
War is more likely.
They could provide a domino effect on proliferation.
The danger of nuclear terrorism increases.
And Iran apparently believes their poisonous propaganda about Israel.
Iranian’s nuclear weapons program began with the Shah, but it was suspended after the Revolution when the program was considered anti-religious.
But the current administration in Iran appears to be heading towards a nuclear weapon under the cover of a civil nuclear program.
In late September Dr. Perry is meeting with the Iranian foreign minister in New York to discuss nuclear disarmament.
Track Two with Russia
In the 1980s, Dr. Perry went to the Soviet Union almost every year. Mikhail Gorbachev promised glasnost or free speech, and Dr. Perry was surprised when it really happened. He was there when the revolution started. During a visit to Tallinn, Estonia, Dr. Perry witnessed the Soviet Union flag being replaced by the Estonian flag.
The current issue between the U.S. and Russia involves the anti-missile system being built by the U.S. in Eastern Europe. Early in September Dr. Perry will be in a Track Two meeting with Russian scientists to see if they can arrive at recommendations to their two governments on how to proceed on this sticky issue.
The Elimination of Nuclear Weapons
Working for the ultimate elimination of nuclear weapons occupies most of Dr. Perry’s professional life now. He is devoting the remainder of his career to advancing this goal, but the final elimination of nuclear weapons must be finished by the next generation. Dr. Perry speaks in his classes of the danger of nuclear weapons. He works with graduate students, counting on their picking up the torch and finishing the job. Dr. Perry makes biweekly trips to Washington, DC, and he makes numerous international trips. He does this because he believes that time is not on our side.
Disarmament leadership has to come from the United States. Dr. Perry supports New START, the international treaty between the US and Russia requiring both sides to reduce the number of nuclear weapons they have deployed. However, the treaty barely passed the U.S. Senate ratification vote, so President Obama has backed off moving forward on a follow-on treaty.
Dr. Perry believes that Iran is more dangerous than North Korea. Both countries used civilian nuclear knowledge to develop nuclear weapons. However, the unintended consequences of Iran’s development of nuclear weapons-- namely, an attack by Israel--would be much farther reaching.
Pakistan presents the most danger relative to having a nuclear bomb. The country has about 100 nuclear weapons and is making more. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s government is under siege: this is part of the danger. Pakistan has lost three wars to India since the two countries separated. If they had a fourth war, Pakistan would still lose but might resort to the use of nuclear weapons. A Track Two meeting between the U.S. and Pakistan at Stanford is now being planned.
Regarding non-state terrorism: an overriding danger is catastrophic terrorism. But terrorists can’t build a nuclear weapon from scratch. On the other hand, if the terrorists could get their hands on fissile material (e.g., plutonium) they could still build a crude bomb, which, though crude, could cause devastation equivalent to the Hiroshima bomb.
Dr. Perry believes that his primary achievement as Secretary of Defense was the dismantlement of 8,000 weapons in the former Soviet Union and the U.S. Stanford University and Harvard University are leading the training of the next generation of diplomats. Michael McFaul of the Hoover Institution is President Obama’s top Russian adviser. Dr. Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall is Obama’s top European advisor. She was an instrumental facilitator of disarmament while she was an assistant to Secretary Perry.
The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) is a non-governmental organization (NGO) chaired by former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn. NTI has produced a video, “Nuclear Tipping Point,” which is available at http://www.nti.org. Although the video is free, Dr. Perry asks that we play it in front of a gathering of people—that we do something useful with it. The public has unfortunately dismissed the question of nuclear disarmament. NTI hopes to raise public awareness, believing that education about this will lead to disarmament. One concern is “political exceptionalism:” a belief that the rules don't apply to me. We need to recognize that we are part of the planet. Though partisanship was rampant after the 1994 Congressional election, it is as bad now as Dr. Perry has ever seen it. [Note: Several attendees indicated that they would start/join nuclear disarmament groups in their communities.]
Dr. Perry believes that before Desert Storm, Saddam Hussein had a desire for nuclear weapons but did not have one yet. Hussein did have chemical weapons, which don’t compare to nuclear weapons. A nuclear exchange during the Cold War would have been the end of civilization. Dr. Perry says that we were close to that in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Today's biggest danger is nuclear terrorists. They could change our life as we know it. Between 20,000 and 30,000 weapons still exist in the world. Dr. Perry does not expect that they will all be dismantled in his lifetime.
With respect to Afghanistan, we went there to defeat Al Qaeda, and that is taking much longer than expected. The draw-down of the U.S. military is possible, but it is still a couple of years away.
Additional Dangers
The danger in disarmament is that the bad guy could get ahold of fissionable material (e.g., plutonium).
There is a danger of cyber war. Cyber war is like a nuclear terrorist threat in that most people don't understand it. The Defense Department is aware of the dangers of cyber attacks and is working to counter. They believe that an effective defense requires a capable offense.
Congratulations to the Class of ’59: Dr. Perry says we're the best informed group he's ever spoken to :-)
Saturday, August 27, 2011, Stanford University Alumni Center
Dr. Perry began his remarks with these words by Robert Frost:
“…Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference."
He indicates that he has taken the less traveled road for most of his life—including working as a high-tech wizard in Silicon Valley (ESL) and working as an intelligence analyst during the Cuban Missile Crisis. His government positions have included serving as the nineteenth United States secretary of defense (February 1994 to January 1997), deputy secretary of defense (1993–94), and undersecretary of defense for research and engineering (1977–81).
Dr. Perry defines two tracks of diplomacy:
- Track One – Diplomacy by government officials
- Track Two – Diplomacy by former government officials
He is an active Track Two diplomat, working in a “gang of four” with former U.S. Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger, Ph.D., former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, and former U.S. Secretary of State George P. Schultz, Ph.D. The gang of four met for the first time in 2006, to co-author an editorial.
Track Two with North Korea
Dr. Perry went to to South Korea in 2008 to attend the inauguration of the South Korean president. The next day he was driven across the demilitarized zone (DMZ) to North Korea to attend the performance of the New York Philharmonic in Pyongyang. The orchestra’s welcome in North Korea was broadcast on live television and included a standing ovation by citizens and the playing of the “Star-Spangled Banner.” (Dr. Perry notes that music is a universal language.) This followed his Track One dealing with North Korea in 1994, when the country was starting to reprocess plutonium. We came close to a second Korean War at that time, when North Korea promised to turn Seoul into a sea of flames and prepared to send troops to the south. Then North Korea backed down and promised to not make plutonium. Following an agreed upon framework, North Korea froze the building of and then eventually dismantled its nuclear plants. This drama unfolded between 1994 and 2002.
However, in August 1998, North Korea test-fired a long-range missile, leading to Dr. Perry being asked by President Clinton to engage in Track One and a Half diplomacy with North Korea. In May 1999, Dr. Perry led a delegation to North Korea. When he took medicine to a children’s hospital, the children said, “Is he here to kill us?” Such comments demonstrate the effect of a lifetime of propaganda. A first-ever summit with South Korea and Japan followed, and North and South Korea marched together in the next Olympics Games. Then, with the election of a new president in the U.S., diplomacy and talks between North Korea and the U.S. were terminated. Inspectors were ejected from nuclear plants, and North Korea now has an arsenal of seven or eight nuclear arms.
Dr. Perry states that disarmament talks have stalled subsequent to the North Korean nuclear tests. However, two Stanford professors are now trying to go back to North Korea to reopen talks on nuclear disarmament.
Track Two with China
Dr. Perry indicates that America’s relationship with China in the next few years is critically important. President Nixon recognized China in 1971, but his acts of diplomacy were impeded by the cultural revolution. President Carter recognized China just as the revolution ended, and this was the beginning of a cooperative program with China. In 1980, as part of that new cooperation, Dr. Perry led the first military delegation to China. When Ronald Reagan became president, Dr. Perry returned to Stanford and continued Track Two diplomacy with China.
Between 1979 and 1989, our relationship with China was never better. Then the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 in Beijing brought an abrupt decline in our relationship with China. The relationship has never returned to the 1979-89 level.
President Clinton restarted the relationship with China by sending Dr. Perry there in 1994; it was a positive trip with a modest return. The road to friendship proved to be rocky. China conducted a missile test that landed quite close to Taiwan. Washington Post headlines at the time included “China Plans Live-Ammunition Tests,” and “Verbal war heats up over Taiwan.” But by 1996, we had some agreements, though modest, in place.
Since 1997, Dr. Perry has met annually with Chinese officials. He believes the meetings are fruitful, including an agreement between China and Taiwan to begin direct air travel.
Track Two with Iran
Iran has nuclear weapons. Why do we care?
And Iran apparently believes their poisonous propaganda about Israel.
Iranian’s nuclear weapons program began with the Shah, but it was suspended after the Revolution when the program was considered anti-religious.
But the current administration in Iran appears to be heading towards a nuclear weapon under the cover of a civil nuclear program.
In late September Dr. Perry is meeting with the Iranian foreign minister in New York to discuss nuclear disarmament.
Track Two with Russia
In the 1980s, Dr. Perry went to the Soviet Union almost every year. Mikhail Gorbachev promised glasnost or free speech, and Dr. Perry was surprised when it really happened. He was there when the revolution started. During a visit to Tallinn, Estonia, Dr. Perry witnessed the Soviet Union flag being replaced by the Estonian flag.
The current issue between the U.S. and Russia involves the anti-missile system being built by the U.S. in Eastern Europe. Early in September Dr. Perry will be in a Track Two meeting with Russian scientists to see if they can arrive at recommendations to their two governments on how to proceed on this sticky issue.
The Elimination of Nuclear Weapons
Working for the ultimate elimination of nuclear weapons occupies most of Dr. Perry’s professional life now. He is devoting the remainder of his career to advancing this goal, but the final elimination of nuclear weapons must be finished by the next generation. Dr. Perry speaks in his classes of the danger of nuclear weapons. He works with graduate students, counting on their picking up the torch and finishing the job. Dr. Perry makes biweekly trips to Washington, DC, and he makes numerous international trips. He does this because he believes that time is not on our side.
Disarmament leadership has to come from the United States. Dr. Perry supports New START, the international treaty between the US and Russia requiring both sides to reduce the number of nuclear weapons they have deployed. However, the treaty barely passed the U.S. Senate ratification vote, so President Obama has backed off moving forward on a follow-on treaty.
Dr. Perry believes that Iran is more dangerous than North Korea. Both countries used civilian nuclear knowledge to develop nuclear weapons. However, the unintended consequences of Iran’s development of nuclear weapons-- namely, an attack by Israel--would be much farther reaching.
Pakistan presents the most danger relative to having a nuclear bomb. The country has about 100 nuclear weapons and is making more. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s government is under siege: this is part of the danger. Pakistan has lost three wars to India since the two countries separated. If they had a fourth war, Pakistan would still lose but might resort to the use of nuclear weapons. A Track Two meeting between the U.S. and Pakistan at Stanford is now being planned.
Regarding non-state terrorism: an overriding danger is catastrophic terrorism. But terrorists can’t build a nuclear weapon from scratch. On the other hand, if the terrorists could get their hands on fissile material (e.g., plutonium) they could still build a crude bomb, which, though crude, could cause devastation equivalent to the Hiroshima bomb.
Dr. Perry believes that his primary achievement as Secretary of Defense was the dismantlement of 8,000 weapons in the former Soviet Union and the U.S. Stanford University and Harvard University are leading the training of the next generation of diplomats. Michael McFaul of the Hoover Institution is President Obama’s top Russian adviser. Dr. Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall is Obama’s top European advisor. She was an instrumental facilitator of disarmament while she was an assistant to Secretary Perry.
The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) is a non-governmental organization (NGO) chaired by former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn. NTI has produced a video, “Nuclear Tipping Point,” which is available at http://www.nti.org. Although the video is free, Dr. Perry asks that we play it in front of a gathering of people—that we do something useful with it. The public has unfortunately dismissed the question of nuclear disarmament. NTI hopes to raise public awareness, believing that education about this will lead to disarmament. One concern is “political exceptionalism:” a belief that the rules don't apply to me. We need to recognize that we are part of the planet. Though partisanship was rampant after the 1994 Congressional election, it is as bad now as Dr. Perry has ever seen it. [Note: Several attendees indicated that they would start/join nuclear disarmament groups in their communities.]
Dr. Perry believes that before Desert Storm, Saddam Hussein had a desire for nuclear weapons but did not have one yet. Hussein did have chemical weapons, which don’t compare to nuclear weapons. A nuclear exchange during the Cold War would have been the end of civilization. Dr. Perry says that we were close to that in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Today's biggest danger is nuclear terrorists. They could change our life as we know it. Between 20,000 and 30,000 weapons still exist in the world. Dr. Perry does not expect that they will all be dismantled in his lifetime.
With respect to Afghanistan, we went there to defeat Al Qaeda, and that is taking much longer than expected. The draw-down of the U.S. military is possible, but it is still a couple of years away.
Additional Dangers
The danger in disarmament is that the bad guy could get ahold of fissionable material (e.g., plutonium).
There is a danger of cyber war. Cyber war is like a nuclear terrorist threat in that most people don't understand it. The Defense Department is aware of the dangers of cyber attacks and is working to counter. They believe that an effective defense requires a capable offense.
Congratulations to the Class of ’59: Dr. Perry says we're the best informed group he's ever spoken to :-)
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